Copy Alpha Guide

How to read this dashboard

This page explains what each field on the dashboard is trying to tell you, what is demo-only right now, and how to interpret the current signal cards without over-trusting the rough edges.

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What the product is doing

Core idea

Copy Alpha is comparing an external BTC reference price and event logic against a selected Polymarket market. The aim is to show where Polymarket may be lagging, stale, or otherwise priced in a way that creates a possible edge.

Current truth

Demo vs live

Some cards are currently generated by the demo/spoof flow. In those cases, the numbers are used to explain the idea, not to claim a production-grade pricing model. The UI is a bit ahead of the final signal engine.

Dashboard fields

What each field means

Event / question

Example: “Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?” Right now the app is configured around the btc-hit-150k market family. The live selector looks for active Polymarket questions matching that pattern. The demo/spoof signal generator also hardcodes that question family.

BTC

This is the reference BTC price the app is using for comparison. Conceptually it comes from Binance. On spoof/demo cards it may be a synthetic value in a realistic range, but it is still standing in for the Binance reference price.

Market price

Short for the current Polymarket price. This is the current price for the selected outcome the signal is talking about. In the current tracked market, that selected outcome is usually Yes. So Market price: 45% means Polymarket is pricing Yes at roughly 45 cents / 45%.

Our estimate / Demo estimate

This is the app’s own estimate of what the probability should be. It is meant to come from external reference data and event logic. On live cards it appears as Our estimate. On demo cards it appears as Demo estimate so it is obvious that the value is illustrative, not a final trading-grade model.

Yes / No split

Example: Yes: 45% | No: 55%. This is the market split between the two mutually exclusive outcomes. A normal market will usually sum to roughly 100%. It helps you see both the selected side and the opposite side at a glance.

Edge

The edge is the gap between the app’s estimate and the market’s current price. Bigger edge means the app thinks there is a larger mismatch worth paying attention to.

Signal types

What “Oracle lag” and “Dutch book” mean

Oracle lag

This means the app thinks the external reference picture and the Polymarket price are out of sync. In plain English: the market may be slow or stale relative to the reference signal we are using.

Dutch book

This means the combined Yes/No prices look materially wrong versus a clean 100% total. In plain English: the two sides may be mispriced in a way that hints at arbitrage, stale pricing, or messy order flow.

Worked examples

How to read a signal card

Example 1: demo oracle-lag card

If a card says Market price: 45% and Demo estimate: 66%, the message is: “the market is pricing Yes at 45%, but the demo model says it should be nearer 66%, so there may be an edge.”

If the same card also shows Yes: 45% | No: 55%, that means Polymarket currently has the two sides roughly balanced at a normal 100% total.

Example 2: dutch-book card

If a card says Price sum: 107%, the message is: “the two opposite outcomes add up to materially more than 100%, which may hint at stale or dislocated pricing.”

Live pipeline

When should the live pipeline signal?

Oracle lag: the live pipeline should signal when the selected market exists, the Binance reference price is live, the Polymarket price is live, and the gap between the market price and the app’s estimate is large enough to matter.

Dutch book: the live pipeline should signal when the Yes/No prices are materially away from a clean 100% total.

Right now the live pipeline is healthy, but the estimate logic is still early. That means the plumbing is running, while the model still needs to become more credible and less placeholder-like.

How to interpret the current MVP

What you should expect right now

  • The dashboard shell, signal cards, demo generation, and the “what is happening?” story should all make sense.
  • Hover tooltips now give short explanations on the main dashboard labels and signal fields.
  • Signal cards now show whether they come from the Demo generator or the Live feed pipeline.
  • The help page gives the fuller explanation and is the source of truth for what each label is intended to mean.
  • The UI is currently more mature than the final trading logic, so some values can still be demo-oriented or provisional.